U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday, ending a week where the 10-year Treasury yield jumped amid new inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that suggested the central bank may not be as aggressive next year with its rate-cutting campaign.
The 10-year Treasury yield was last higher by about 2 basis point to 4.439%. The 10-year rate ended last week around 4.31%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose by about three basis points to 4.322%. The 2-year yield ended last week around 4.25%. One basis point equals 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Investors monitored Powell’s speech on Thursday for hints about future monetary policy decisions. Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth means the central bank won’t need to quickly cut interest rates.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said in his speech. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
The remarks come after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point last week. Investors have lowered their expectations of a similar cut by the Fed at its next December meeting.
Investors’ expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting is now 62.4% after Powell’s remarks, compared with 82.5% earlier on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Expectations are rising that the Fed could hold rates steady at its December meeting, however, and now sit at 37.9%.
On Wednesday, the annual inflation rate came in at 2.6% for October. But excluding food and energy, core CPI accelerated to 3.3% annually, still far from the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 9 dropped by 4,000 from the previous week to 217,000, signaling a robust economy.
Investors will turn their attention to further economic data due to be published on Friday, including retail sales, industrial production, and import prices.
