PoundSterlingLIVE – Above: A mechanic and a welder; Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Image © Adobe (NASDAQ:) Images.
The Canadian Dollar fell after wage and unemployment data for November opened the door to a 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada next week.
to Canadian Dollar () rose to 1.80 after Statistics Canada said average hourly wages slid to 3.9% in November from 4.9% in October, representing a significant slowdown.
Rising wages can boost domestic inflation, but the picture in Canada remains one of a slowing economy and a jobs market that is not at risk of generating the wages required to stop inflation from falling further.
Therefore, the Bank of Canada will likely cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week because of these data.
This expectation is reflected in falling Canadian bond yields and the currency.
On the positive side, Canada reported it created 50.5K jobs in November, doubling the expected 25K and eclipsing October’s 14K.
However, the participating rate rose to 65.1% from 64.8%, meaning there are now more people looking for work. This mechanically drives up the unemployment rate to 6.8% from 6.5%.
“Elevated population growth and still-high participation rates caused the unemployment rate to jump to 6.8 percent, blowing past consensus estimates for a rise to 6.6 percent,” says Karl Schamotta, an analyst at Corpay.
“On balance, we now think the Bank of Canada will move more aggressively next week, cutting by 50 basis points and telegraphing a faster return to neutral in 2025,” he adds.
Andrew Grantham, Economist at CIBC (TSX:) Capital Markets, notes further evidence of a disappointing report.
“Even though full-time positions drove the headline increase, most of the gains were in public sector paid employment, with private sector hiring up by only a modest 6K.”
Canada also reported a further increase in joblessness for prime-aged (25-54) workers and hours worked fell slightly.
“Today’s data was the final piece of the puzzle before next week’s Bank of Canada decision, and even though the piece didn’t fit perfectly, we still see the picture of a struggling economy that needs the help of another 50bp reduction in rates,” says Grantham.
An original version of this article can be viewed at Pound Sterling Live
