Scientists have warned that flying debris could threaten commercial aircraft, causing “catastrophic” consequences “for decades to come”.
The breakthrough research discovered over 2,300 rocket bodies are currently in orbit, and there’s a 26% chance of uncontrolled space debris entring busy airspace every year.
The study, published in Scientific Reports, said this risk is directly linked to increasing air traffic and space missions, making airspace closures more frequent.
The authors wrote: “Uncontrolled reentries of space objects create a collision risk with aircraft in flight. While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic
“Moreover, the risk is rising due to increases in both reentries and flights. In response, national authorities may choose to preemptively close airspace during reentry events; some have already done so.
“For a given reentry, the collision risk in the underlying airspace increases with the air traffic density. However, the economic consequences of flight delays also increase should that airspace be closed.
“This situation puts national authorities in a dilemma – to close airspace or not – with safety and economic implications either way. The collision risk could be mitigated if controlled reentries into the ocean were required for all missions.
“However, over 2300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner. Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.”
The areas with the busiest airspace – around major airports – have a 0.8% chance of being affected by falling debris every year, the report said.
It added that the risk level rises to 26% for larger areas of airspace, for example those in the northeastern US, northern Europe, and around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.
This issue was highlighted after the SpaceX Starship mission last month, which caused debris to fall over the Atlantic Ocean near Turks and Caicos. This forced airspace to be temporarily closed and delayed nearby flights.
The increasing number of space missions means such incidents are likely to become more frequent, making the jobs of air traffic authorities even harder.
The report concluded that managing space traffic and creating better systems for tracking debris will be vital to make air travel safe in the future at the same time as minimising the economic impacts of closing airspace.
