BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s industrial output quickened slightly in November, while retail sales disappointed, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy as it braces for more U.S. trade tariffs under a second Trump administration.
The mixed set of data underlines the challenges facing Chinese leaders heading into 2025 when trade relations with the United States could worsen at a time when domestic consumption also remains weak.
China’s industrial output grew 5.4% in November year-on-year, up from the 5.3% pace seen in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, beating expectations for a 5.3% increase in a Reuters poll.
However, retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 3.3% last month, down from a 4.8% rise in October. Analysts had predicted a 4.6% expansion.
The weaker retail figures come despite a boost from major online shopping promotions, and government-subsidised trade-in programs that have boosted sales in sectors including automobiles.
Fixed asset investment increased 3.3% in January-November from the same period a year earlier, compared with an expected 3.4% rise. It grew 3.4% in the January to October period.
At last week’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a closely-watched agenda-setting meeting, China’s top leaders pledged to raise the budget deficit, issue more debt, and make boosting consumption a top priority.
The remarks echoed commitments made by a meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo, earlier this month, which endorsed an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in the first easing of its stance in 14 years.
Reuters has also reported that government advisers have recommended that Beijing maintain a growth target of around 5.0% for next year, a goal that would require strong measures to mitigate the impact of expected U.S. tariffs.
Trump, who is set to start his second term as the U.S. president in January, has threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on imports of Chinese goods.
Reuters reported last week that China was considering allowing the yuan to weaken in response to punitive trade measures, but a readout from state media Xinhua after the CEWC reiterated a commitment to maintain the yuan’s basic stability.
A recent Reuters poll predicted China will grow 4.5% next year, with new U.S. tariffs potentially shaving up to 1 parentage point off growth.
