With Donald Trump securing victory in the U.S. presidential election, Indian consumers may find an unexpected opportunity in the market for gold just when the wedding season kicks in. The US election result has led to a 6% dip in gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), falling by Rs 4,750 per 10 grams since November 4. This price movement has perhaps captured the attention of many gold buyers, especially as India heads into its vibrant wedding season — a time when demand for gold typically soars.
For Indian consumers, gold is not just an asset but a cultural staple, deeply ingrained in weddings, festivals, and as a safeguard against economic uncertainty. With gold prices trending lower, those who have weddings lined up in their families are keenly observing this opportunity.
“Enquiries at stores have increased due to price fall. We are expecting higher footfalls for upcoming wedding seasons,” said Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO, Senco Gold and Diamonds.
Surendra Mehta, the national secretary of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), had told ET soon after US election results that “it is the right time to buy gold for those who have marriages lined up in their families. They can get some relief for the time being.”
Mehta also said, “The gold price fall will be a permanent one if Trump takes measures to improve the economy of the US, which, however, will take some time.”
Gold’s glittery run in 2024
Gold prices have experienced a remarkable rally in 2024, with 39 record highs in dollar terms up to October. As the World Gold Council’s data shows, this is a record-breaking year for gold since 1979. The surge has been driven by several factors: central bank buying, strong Asian demand, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, all contributing to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, Trump’s win has brought new dynamics into play. Historically, a strong dollar often results in lower gold prices. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of major foreign currencies, has surged to a high not seen since June 2024, climbing past the 106 mark. Trump’s pro-domestic policies—such as support for oil drilling, tariffs on Chinese goods, and stricter immigration laws—could lead to a stronger U.S. economy and, consequently, a stronger dollar. As a result, gold prices could face further pressure.
India’s wedding season: A golden chance?
The dip in gold prices couldn’t come at a better time for Indian consumers, as the country’s wedding season gears up. The season kicked off on November 12 with Dev Uth Ekadashi and will run through December 16. Typically, gold demand spikes during this period as families purchase jewellery for wedding ceremonies. With prices showing signs of easing, those who were on the fence about buying gold are now seeing a window of opportunity.
The post-Diwali season also traditionally brings increased gold buying, adding to the opportunity for Indian consumers to capitalize on the current price trends.
Long-term outlook for gold prices: Should you invest now?
While the immediate trend is encouraging for gold buyers, the long-term outlook for the metal remains complex. Analysts believe that even though the dollar and gold have an inverse relationship, gold’s fundamentals as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment remain strong. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst at Sharekhan, said, “The metal is likely to correct further lower in the short term; however, the medium to long-term prospects are bullish on elevated debt/GDP ratio, disconcerting fiscal deficit, de-dollarisation, geopolitics, gold buying by central banks, etc.”
With the U.S. and global economies facing ongoing challenges, central banks continue to cut rates, and the overall investment landscape favors assets like gold. Singh suggests that investors take a gradual approach to accumulate gold, as prices might drop further before rebounding. “The metal may decline to $2,500 or so,” he estimates, emphasizing that the correction could be an opportunity for long-term investors.
Expert Strategies: How to approach gold buying
For those wondering if this is the right time to invest in gold, analysts recommend a mix of caution and strategy. Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, sees immediate support for gold at around Rs 72,623, with a potential downside to Rs 70,280. However, Makda also highlights the possibility of a “sell-on-rise” strategy in the short term, given the stronger dollar index. This approach allows for potential buying from key support levels for a long-term position.
With Trump’s economic policies likely to strengthen the dollar, and the Fed potentially lowering rates in December, gold’s immediate future might be uncertain. However, experts agree that in the longer term, the fundamentals supporting gold remain strong. For Indian consumers looking to invest, this period of fluctuation presents an opportunity to buy gold at a relatively low price, whether for wedding preparations or as a safe investment for the future.
