The raucous early morning celebration in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood was of a magnitude not seen since the Cuban dictator Fidel Castro died eight years previously. In the immigrant-saturated suburb of Westchester, too, Latinos partied beyond daybreak as Donald Trump’s return to the White House was confirmed.
Wednesday morning’s revelry in south Florida reflected a stunning victory for Trump in the previously solid blue, Hispanic-majority county of Miami-Dade that had not been won by a Republican presidential candidate in more than 30 years.
His victory, fueled largely by support from Latino and Hispanic voters, particularly Latino men, was repeated in county after county in swing states as the Democrats’ blue wall crumbled and it became clear Trump would once again be president.
In Pennsylvania, hordes of Puerto Ricans who saw their homeland demeaned as a “floating island of garbage” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally barely a week before, flocked to give him their vote.
In Wisconsin, exit polls showed a six-point rise from 2020, to 43%, in Trump’s Hispanic support, despite his condemnation of certain immigrants as “drug dealers”, “murderers” and “rapists”, and promise to conduct the largest deportation effort in US history soon after he takes office.
And among other minority groups, Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan also seemed able to overlook Trump’s full-throated support of Israel’s military onslaught in Gaza to show up for him in large numbers. In large part, that move was as much an effort to vote against Kamala Harris as many in the Arab and Muslim American communities have expressed anger with the Biden administration – and, by extension, Harris – for its support for Israel.
Analysts, while noting that the election was only a few days ago and a full picture of voting patterns has yet to emerge, suggest a multitude of reasons why a candidate so openly hostile to immigrants would be championed by them in such large numbers.
Fault, they say, can be attributed to Democrats’ failure to understand the nuances of the Hispanic and Latino voting populations. There were clear signs as early as January that then candidate Joe Biden’s support from that demographic had cratered, and Trump’s was rising.
Ultimately, it was Republicans’ economic messaging that broke through most, several experts said. That was then combined with an admiration for Trump’s bombastic and pugnacious style among Latino men who, as much as white men and women who form his base, have no problem with his insults, racism and threats, because they don’t believe he is talking about them.
“There seems to be an attraction to Trump among Latinos, Latino men, that could be a kind of defensive reaction to his aggression and aggressive rhetoric,” said Guillermo Grenier, professor of sociology at Florida International University and the co-author of the book This Land is Our Land: Newcomers and Established Residents in Miami.
“It could be they’re saying: ‘I’m not one of them, you know? I’m an American citizen, I’m voting for you, I’m not the rapist scum, I’m not with them. That’s the other guys, the other immigrants, not the voting immigrants.’”
Grenier also points to the “arrogance” of Democrats in assuming Latinos, and other minority voting groups would gravitate towards them.
“They always have a kind of a sense of entitlement to the minority vote. They don’t put the muscle in but think African Americans should vote for them, that Latinos should vote for them, because they’re the big tent party,” he said.
“But we’re in an age of identity politics. You can’t just talk generally about ambitions and accessibility and dreams if the opposite side is digging very deeply, focusing and talking directly to the people they need to attract … When people talk about why they like Trump it’s that kind of directness, and if you don’t have a strategy to counter that delivery then you are just kind of flailing.”
Carlos Suárez Carrasquillo, political science professor at the University of Florida’s center for Latin American studies, sees Latino men as equally susceptible to Trump’s braggadocio and misogynistic proclivities as any other group of males.
“If white males find Trump appealing as a candidate, why wouldn’t Latino males?” he said.
“A larger conversation is whether the constituency of Latino males is inherently Democrat. Or maybe aspects of gender that Trump plays up really well is a dynamic pitching at Latino males.”
Suárez also suggests Trump’s growing appeal to male Latino voters – he was the first Republican presidential candidate to win them outright – could be that it makes them feel more American.
“You can imagine that in some Latino quarters, supporting Trump is a way to assimilate, to incorporate,” he said.
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“Is the Latino experience in the US becoming slowly but surely more similar to the American white experience? Could this also be a sign that the voting behavior of Latinos, slowly but surely, start to resemble more that of white America and, in this case, white males? The argument could be made.”
Grenier, meanwhile, sees Latino voters frustrated when they feel they are being patronized.
“In the political narrative of both parties they are treated as not American, or as a special kind of American,” he said.
“Democrats come down and give their foreign policy speech about communism and authoritarianism like it’s their number one issue, and treat these south Floridians, whether they’re Venezuelans, Cubans or [other Hispanic or Latino nationalities], as refugees, immigrants or exiles.
“But their top three issues, like anywhere in the country, are the economy, healthcare and immigration, boom boom boom.”
Other analysts agree that the Harris campaign’s failures can help explain Latino turnout for Trump, which saw a 14-point increase since the 2020 election.
“The Latino vote was the parties’ to win, not the other way around. A significant proportion of Latinos do not have strong ties to either party,” said Ana Valdez, president and chief executive of the Latino Donor Collaborative, in a statement.
Valdez noted that while “rhetoric from the right has been hurtful and horrible,” the “Democratic party has let many Latinos down.”
“They promised much and delivered little,” she said, adding that promises to tackle issues like immigration reform fell short.
“Many Latino voters feel ignored and unrepresented [and] Trump’s team made calculated moves to reach culturally conservative Latinos. They tapped into something real for these voters, the appeal to traditional values, economic opportunity,and a message that resonated on a personal level.
She continued: “With wealthier Latinos, his team pushed concerns over taxes and inflation with a directness that resonated. When it comes to young Latinos, the Trump campaign clearly did more to build their platform digitally, studying and investing more in targeting Latinos on social media.
“The Latino vote continues to be the biggest blind spot for both parties. But this massive shift compared to 2020 highlights that the winning side better understood the frustrations of the Latino community and took advantage.”
