Although this may not be felt in Maharashtra until legislative business begins in earnest, the result’s impact will be felt without delay in parliament as its winter session begins today. Undeniably, the political impact of the Maharashtra verdict will be felt nationally because it hugely bolsters confidence of NDA, especially confidence in Narendra Modi.
Likewise, the combative character Congress displayed during the previous session will be difficult to harness after the party ‘squandered’ two opportunities that came knocking following the general elections. Unlike the Haryana elections, which the party practically ‘lost’ to BJP, in the case of Maharashtra, this was an election that Maha Yuti (MY) won by combing several strategies-significantly without Modi campaigning with the intensity associated with him.
BJP and its alliance partners have plugged almost every loophole that showed up following their inadequate performance in Maharashtra in the April-May parliamentary elections-just 17 seats out of 48, even as the combined vote share of the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP was barely 1% and a few decimal points lower than the INDIA’s aggregate. While Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners were lulled into complacency by their Lok Sabha tally of 31-their campaigning thereby lacking verve this time-MY parties paid greater attention to candidate selection and improved micro-management during campaigning.
But more importantly, CM Eknath Shinde found the solution to invert the Lok Sabha verdict that gave Shiv Sena 7 seats, two less than his former leader Udhav Thackeray’s outfit, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). Shinde’s mission succeeded-his party winning 57 assembly seats, almost 3x SS(UBT)’s 20-by quietly borrowing a January 2023 idea from Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s playbook when he was Madhya Pradesh CM.
As early as July, Shinde secured support of his alliance partners in becoming the face of Maharashtra Ladli Behna Yojana (LBY), based on MP’s Ladli Laxmi Yojana that was inaugurated in 2007. Under LBY, Maharashtra government credited ₹1,500 monthly (plus ‘bonus’ for Diwali) to accounts of over 2.3 cr women from families earning less than ₹2.5 lakh annually. Although running for barely a few months, it secured dividends for MY: a significant increase in women’s voter turnout-from 59.26% in 2019 to 65.22% in 2024-resulting in an increase of 52 lakh over 2019. It would be fair to conjecture that an overwhelming number of women would have ‘pressed the button’ of MY candidates.Such a scheme also worked for Hemant Soren, under Jharkhand’s Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana, started by his government in August. It distributed ₹1,000 monthly payments, with a promise to increase it to ₹2,500 by December 2024. It helped JMM and its partners, since women outnumber men in 85% of seats.Such schemes, however, highlight what CAG had mentioned in its 2023 report about governments having to ‘monitor and manage its debt levels to ensure long-term fiscal stability’. This report not just drew attention to such schemes as instances of competitive populism, but also highlighted other instances of largesse in Maharashtra finance minister Ajit Pawar’s other budget proposals within a month of the Lok Sabha results-3 free LPG cylinders a year for BPL families and free electricity for farmers.
Ironically, Modi has harped on the spread of ‘revdi culture’ for at least three years. Delhi assembly polls are two months way, and Arvind Kejriwal has begun a ‘Revdi Pe Charcha’ campaign to contend that while AAP’s programmes are derided, BJP’s are depicted as evidence of its pro-poor orientation.
The biggest last-mile difference in Maharashtra was RSS bluntly demonstrating to Modi and his aides that BJP still requires the swayamsevak network to win elections, at least in some parts of India. The massive 15% difference in vote share of MY and MVA this time, compared to MVA’s slender lead in the Lok Sabha polls, is the result of sangh parivar, under RSS leadership, coming out in full strength for BJP.
This development was preceded by the sight of a ‘disunited Hindu family’ during the Lok Sabha campaign, in which the two biggest awkward episodes were the infamous declaration by JP Nadda that BJP was now ‘capable’ to sail on its own, and jibes that Mohan Bhagwat made without naming anyone, but leaving no one in doubt as to who they were targeted at.
We are likely see the emergence of a more confident BJP-Modi ‘duo’ in national politics. Within internal sangh parivar dynamics, Modi’s unilateral style of functioning may be toned down. Consultative interactions, which had become virtually non-existent, could be resumed.
The extent of this should be seen within a month, by which time the name of the next BJP president will be finalised. An indication of this ‘settlement’ may even become partially evident in the next day or two-depending on how BJP settles the issue of Maharashtra’s next CM, and power-sharing formula between MY partners.
