FTSE 100 at lowest since March
Stocks have sunk deeper into the red, after today’s blisteringly hot US private sector payroll report (see earlier post).
Investors are concluding that good economic news is bad for the markets, as it means central banks will hike interest rates even higher to fight inflation.
Markets now see July 25bps hike from the Fed as a 91% chance, up from 86% yday
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 6, 2023
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has shed 127 points, or 1.7%, to 7,315 points – the lowest since mid-March.
Only four companies, all utilities firms, are in the risers, with the other 96 members of the index losing ground.
Key events
Federal Reserve policymakers may well be dreading tomorrow’s jobs report now after today’s ADP number has coming in more than double the consensus forecast, says Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Erlam explains:
FOMC policymakers, along with investors, may have been hoping the tide would now turn after such as intense tightening cycle over the last 18 months. But if the ADP report is anything to go by, we’re headed for another red-hot jobs report.
If a rate hike this month wasn’t already nailed on, it probably is now. The ADP isn’t often a great precursor to the NFP number but this is a report you simply can’t ignore. I’m sure everyone will be revising up their expectations on the back of it and wondering just how much longer this labour market resilience can last. How high must rates go?
Wall Street opens lower
Stocks have also opened sharply lower in New York, as investors fret that further interest rate increases are on the horizon.
The Dow Jones industrial average has shed 332 points, or almost 1%, to 33,956 points.
The broader S&P 500 index has also fallen 1%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has lost 1.2%
Today’s stronger-than-expected ADP payroll report, showing private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, has spooked traders.
As we covered earlier, that’s more than double expectations, implying that further monetary policy tightening will be rolled out to cool the US economy.
Private payrolls rose by 497,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday, up from a downwardly revised level of 267,000 in May. Economists had expected the reading to tick up by 228,000.
— AMERICA’S BEST PATRIOT☄️🇺🇸 ➡️ (@AlisonBoxxer) July 6, 2023
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, released last night, indicated that officials intend to resume interest rate increases at future meetings to fight inflation, after pausing in June.
European markets are also taking a bath.
Germany’s DAX is down 1.75%, while France’s CAC has dropped by 2.4% and Italy’s FTSE MIB has lost 2%, as anxiety of rising interest rates hit shares across Europe.
US government bonds are also weakening, as traders react to today’s strong jobs report:
The housing market is getting dealt another blow as mortgage rates once climb above 7% with Treasury yields spiking on the much stronger than expected ADP June jobs gain of 497K, with the ten year above 4%. #DOW -281 #NASDAQ -183
— Jason Brooks (@brookskcbsradio) July 6, 2023
The unexpectedly strong 497,000 increase in the ADP measure of US private sector employment in June may be due to seasonal factors, rather than genuine labour market strength, economists say.
Leisure and hospitality firms added 232,000 new workers, which could well be due to a surge in summer employment….
Per @ADP, June private payrolls jumped to 497k vs. 225K est. & 267k prior month, biggest gain since Feb. 2022; leisure and hospitality added most jobs since Sept. 2021 (likely to be some seasonal adjustment issues at play, which flattered number like was case in June 2022) pic.twitter.com/rkn4IjotRO
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2023
FTSE 100 at lowest since March
Stocks have sunk deeper into the red, after today’s blisteringly hot US private sector payroll report (see earlier post).
Investors are concluding that good economic news is bad for the markets, as it means central banks will hike interest rates even higher to fight inflation.
Markets now see July 25bps hike from the Fed as a 91% chance, up from 86% yday
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 6, 2023
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has shed 127 points, or 1.7%, to 7,315 points – the lowest since mid-March.
Only four companies, all utilities firms, are in the risers, with the other 96 members of the index losing ground.
Sainsbury’s denies being ‘rip-off retailer’
Bosses at Sainsbury’s have said they are “not rip-off retailer” or “profiteers” as they defended the profit made by the retailer amid scrutiny over rising food prices.
At the retailer’s AGM today, the supermarket group’s chairman Martin Scicluna defended the industry.
Scicluna said:
“To be very, very clear, we are not profiteering and we are not rip-off retailers.
“We make 3p on every pound we sell. If we offered you something for £1, and I said I made 3p on that product, I don’t think you would call us a rip-off merchant or a profiteer, but some MPs have.”
Scicluna also defended the near-£5m pay deal for chief executive Simon Roberts.
He told shareholders today:
“What we are trying to do is focusing on rewards for Simon, the operating board, senior leadership and colleagues. That’s why our colleague pay has gone up 44% over the past four years.
“It is a lower fixed pay, around 19% of the total, but we incentivised Simon and the team with the bonus and LTIPs (long-term incentive payments) to make sure that we grow profits, because it is good for the company and means we can invest in innovation, technology and reward shareholders.
“All this is balanced and we try to do it in a proper way – because it comes through the board, I stand by it completely.”
Back in the UK, water company Severn Trent has avoided a shareholder revolt at its AGM today.
Over 95% of votes were cast in favour of the Directors’ Remuneration Report (its pay policy) with votes to reelect directors all at least 96% or higher.
CEO Liv Garfield got 99.96% support.
US private sector jobs growth smashes forecasts
Just in: American companies added half a million new jobs last month, which will add to pressure to keep raising US interest rates.
Payroll operator ADP has reported that private sector employment increased by 497,000 jobs in June, with annual pay up 6.4% year-on-year.
That’s more than twice as many new jobs as expected.
US ADP Employment (Jun) act: 497k, exp: 225k, prev: 278k
— Michael Hewson 🇬🇧 (@mhewson_CMC) July 6, 2023
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, says:
“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected.
But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”
BOOM💥- US reports a blowout June #ADP Private Payrolls change number of +497k vs. 225k expected and 267k in May (revised -11k). This is the largest payrolls growth number since Feb 2022 and larger than any print for the pre-pandemic years going back to the survey start in 2010.
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) July 6, 2023
This may suggest that tomorrow’s official US jobs report, the non-farm payroll, will be strong – although there isn’t much correlation between the two reports…
Bloomberg are reporting that the UK government believes that Thames Water will be able to avoid being taken into public ownership.
The government now thinks that Thames Water will be able to raise the funds it needs to manage its debt pile and invest in improving infrastructure, people familiar with the situation have said.
More here: UK Government Believes Thames Water Can Avoid State Takeover
It emerged last week that contingency plans for the collapse of Thames Water had been drawn up by the UK government.
But, environment secretary Thérèse Coffey has told MPs this morning she has “full confidence in the financial resilience” of the water industry, after
She told the House of Commons:
“I think it’s important to put on the record that the Government has confidence in the financial resilience of the water sector industry and we will continue to have those discussions that are important.”
However, shadow environment secretary Jim McMahon argued that water privatisation had failed, saying:
“Since Tory privatisation water companies have racked up debts of over £60bn and every day we see 800 sewage dumps and lose over three billion litres of water in leaks. And the biggest leak of all? £72bn paid out to shareholders.
“And now Thames Water is on the edge as the money dries up.
The Tories are sinking the water industry:
💰Water companies have racked up debts of over £60bn
💩800 sewage dumps a day
🚰3 billion litres of water leaked every day
💸£72bn paid out to shareholdersI asked the Secretary of State if Thames Water is an isolated case👇 pic.twitter.com/501WtjwCvB
— Jim McMahon MP (@JimfromOldham) July 6, 2023
More than half of renters strugging to make their housing payments
More than half (55%) of renters are finding it hard to make their housing payments, according to a survey.
Just over a third (35%) of homeowners with a mortgage said they find it difficult to afford their mortgage payments, the YouGov research indicated.
The survey of more than 2,000 people across Britain also asked people how hard they think it will be in 12 months to make their housing payments.
Around half (51%) of renters expect to find it difficult, as do 47% of mortgage holders, according to the findings in June.
Most renters, and a third of Brits with mortgages, say they are finding it difficult to afford their housing payments
Mortgages
Finding difficult now: 35%
Expect to be difficult in 1yr: 47%Renters
Finding difficult now: 55%
Expect difficult in 1yr: 51%https://t.co/EUuL5Khgzy pic.twitter.com/lbtQen0A4s— YouGov (@YouGov) July 6, 2023
Bitcoin has hit its highest level in 13 months today, rising by as much as 3.3% to hit $31,500.
After a bruising 2022, Bitcoin has gained almost 90% during 2023. It has benefited from interest by instituational investors, with BlackRock – the world’s largest asset manager – launching a U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) (details here).
#Bitcoin makes a fresh year-to-date high!
– Priced in #USD, bitcoin is up ~90% since the start of the year.
– Price in USD at the highest level in over a year.Oh, and by the way, #Blackrock‘s boss Fink wants to ‘democratize’ bitcoin, which he once believed to be an ‘index of… pic.twitter.com/dVcgjMkbhh
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) July 6, 2023