Introduction: Number of pubs in England and Wales dipped below 39,000 this year
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The number of pubs in England and Wales has fallen again, as the trend of public houses disappearing from local communities accelerated in 2024.
Altus Group, the commercial real estate company, reports this morning that 412 pubs were demolished or converted for other uses over the last year. That pulls the number of pubs in operation across England and Wales down to 38,989, below 39,000 for the first time.
Pub owners have warned that rising costs, and changes to the alcohol excise duty system, have made it harder to keep operating, while the rising price of a pint has also led to pub closures.
The sector also fears a hangover from October’s budget in 2025. Altus Group’s Alex Probyn says:
“Many publicans that I speak to are extremely worried that this could be their last Christmas given the combination of hiking the amount employers will have to pay in National Insurance, increases to the minimum wage and the business rates discount being slashed from 75% to 40% in 2025.
The leisure industry was also badly hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a sharp drop in the number of nightclubs in operation – down from 1,700 in 2013 to just 787 by June this year.
The agenda
Key events
House prices in prime central London have dropped this year, estate agent Savills reports, as wealthy buyers were scared off by October’s budget.
Savills reports that average prices across prime central London dropped by 0.8% in the last three months. That included a 2% drop in Knightsbridge, a 1.6% fall in South Kensington and a 1.5% decline in Belgravia, as areas with the highest concentrations of wealth, and a more international buyer base, were hit by the budget.
Over the last year, values in prime central London have dropped by -1.9%, Savills reports, while they rose by 1.4% in “outer prime London” during 2024.
Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, says:
“The cautious mentality that we observed ahead of this summer’s general election and the Autumn Budget has persisted across prime markets as the year draws to a close, although properties continue to sell where they are priced competitively.
“Generally, needs-based buyers have underpinned market activity post-Budget, as they have benefited from relatively stable mortgage rates and the prospect of further base rate cuts in 2025. As a result, these sub-markets have been the strongest performers in London.
“However, prime central London locations remain the most price sensitive, as buyers and sellers adjust to the winding down of the ‘non-doms’ tax regime and the new SDLT surcharge for second home purchases. We expect market conditions to remain challenging in central London next year as the impact of these changes continues to be felt.”
2,074 pubs lost in the last five years
Here’s a chart from Altus Group, showing how the number of pubs in England and Wales has fallen steadily over the last five years.
Pubs which have ‘vanished’ from the communities that they once served have either been demolished or converted into other types of use such as homes, offices or even day nurseries with a total of 2,074 being lost for good in just the last 5 years, Altus say.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot has predicted that China may start selling its products to Europe at discounted rates if the US starts a trade war by imposing new tariffs on imports.
In an interview published in Dutch newspaper Volkskrant, Knot says:
“There is a chance that the Chinese will start offering their goods in Europe at lower and lower prices.
“We are already seeing that happening in the steel market.
In this way, China is, as it were, exporting its deflation to us.”
Nearly 170,000 UK shop workers lost their jobs in 2024
2024 was also a tough year in the UK retail sector, where nearly 170,000 UK shop workers lost their jobs in the last year.
The collapse of big chains such as Homebase and The Body Shop put thousands of jobs at risk and contributed to 169,395 retail jobs disappearing during 2024 – a 42% rise on 2023 levels, new data shows.
European stock markets have opened in the red, on the final full trading day of the year.
In London, the FTSE 100 index has dipped by 32 points, or 0.4%, to 8115.
Germany’s DAX dropped 0.5%, while France’s CAC was 0.3% lower.
Mexico left with 500m-litre tequila lake after demand slows
In other alcohol-related news, Mexico has a 500m-litre tequila lake as demand for the spirit has ebbed.
The Financial Times reports this morning that Mexico is sitting on more than half a billion litres of tequila in inventory, which is nearly a whole year’s production.
Data shows that around one-sixth of the 599mn litres of tequila produced last year is unsold, sitting alongside the 525mn litres that Mexico already had in inventory at the end of 2023.
This growing tequila lake is due to an ebbing of the pandemic spirits boom in the US, as consumers cut back on their drinking.
Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling says:
“Much more new spirit is being distilled than is being sold, and inventories are starting to accumulate.
“The tequila industry is set for a very turbulent 2025.”
Some of the inventory is in the process of being aged – but distillers also run the risk that Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on Mexico, making it harder to sell tequila to the US market.
The drinks industry is urging the government to ease the load on publicans, following this latest drop in pub numbers.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, says:
“Brewers and pubs pour billions into the economy and support more than a million jobs, so we know that closures can have a disastrous impact for both the nation’s coffers and the job market.
“For the sector to remain a stalwart of the economy and continue to be the beating heart of our communities, the Government must swiftly deliver permanent and meaningful business rate reforms.
“We stand ready to help the Government bring in sorely-needed change that will break down the barriers that stop our sector from contributing even more to the economy and employing more people than ever before.”
Introduction: Number of pubs in England and Wales dipped below 39,000 this year
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The number of pubs in England and Wales has fallen again, as the trend of public houses disappearing from local communities accelerated in 2024.
Altus Group, the commercial real estate company, reports this morning that 412 pubs were demolished or converted for other uses over the last year. That pulls the number of pubs in operation across England and Wales down to 38,989, below 39,000 for the first time.
Pub owners have warned that rising costs, and changes to the alcohol excise duty system, have made it harder to keep operating, while the rising price of a pint has also led to pub closures.
The sector also fears a hangover from October’s budget in 2025. Altus Group’s Alex Probyn says:
“Many publicans that I speak to are extremely worried that this could be their last Christmas given the combination of hiking the amount employers will have to pay in National Insurance, increases to the minimum wage and the business rates discount being slashed from 75% to 40% in 2025.
The leisure industry was also badly hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a sharp drop in the number of nightclubs in operation – down from 1,700 in 2013 to just 787 by June this year.
