The global economic order, once built on open trade and multilateralism, is now fragmented into competing blocs, protectionist policies and attempts to create technological silos. Protectionism and jingoism are reshaping policies and ideology.
As a result of these shifts, India could face increased volatility, policy uncertainty and trade barriers, which could amplify domestic challenges, including slowing urban consumption and market instability. But this global disruption could also provide the country with the opportunity to recalibrate and reinvent. The country has necessary tools to survive and thrive. But the way forward needs 3 key things:
Strengthen core To maintain focus amid extreme disruptions, nations should first reflect on what will remain constant in their own contexts despite the shake-up. For India, these include the country’s talent and domestic consumption-led growth. What is needed is to upskill the workforce, enhance efficiencies, boost productivity and ensure policies that can be translated to on-the-ground change in a timely fashion. Ensuring inclusive growth is crucial. Tech disruptions from AI, automation and quantum computing are an opportunity to unleash a tech revolution.
Multiskilling, encouraging innovation and developing homegrown platforms and IP will be key. GoI’s push for data sovereignty and digital stack, combined with the dynamic startup ecosystem, can help India position itself as the alternative hub for tech-first manufacturing and R&D.
Building resilience India’s focus on aatmanirbharta, along with sustainable and inclusive growth and diversified supply chains, can build resilience, create shock absorbers and maintain growth momentum. India needs to focus on industries of the future and ensure their resilience through an enhanced R&D ecosystem.Simultaneously, strengthening trade ties with emerging markets in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America could help expand India’s supply chains and reach a much wider customer base. Regional cooperation via Saarc and Bimstec can create a buffer against global shocks. Encourage patient and productive investments Of late, India’s domestic savings have been diverted towards a ‘self-sustaining Ponzi scheme’. This has led to a decisive focus on KPIs, with inadequate attention to innovation and lagging private capex.
Barring a few, large organisations have lost the art of innovation with an increased dependence on startups for new ideas. Companies must realise that while it may provide short-term gains, derivative and marginal innovation is insufficient for long-term sustainability. They must invest in reinvention and rethink value creation through product development, customer experience, pricing models, or all three.
India also needs to provide and create alternate sources of comparatively cheaper capital to support innovation, develop new industries and drive opportunities. Well-designed instruments can serve the dual purpose of providing alternate savings instruments while creating an innovation corpus – like how National Savings Certificates (NSCs) were leveraged.
With the right policy environment, talent and availability of capital amid a challenging global landscape, India has the potential to generate new opportunities for growth, efficiency and value creation that could transform the world of tomorrow.
By focusing on constants and responding thoughtfully, India can navigate global disruptions strategically and ensure its growth trajectory remains robust and resilient. Businesses must innovate with agility, GoI and state governments must lead with foresight, and citizens must embrace change with confidence.
The writer is chairperson, PwC India
