Spring thaw, but peace is still far off

Spring is in the air, but it may not bring a sea change to the Russia-Ukraine battlefields. Some movement toward peace was made this week, with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreeing not to attack each other’s energy installations. However, reports of Russia bombing Ukrainian civilian infra within hours of Tuesday’s 90-minute telephone call between Putin and Trump is bad news. Putin appears to be slow-walking the talks, buying time to gain more leverage, focusing on normalising relations with the US and easing sanctions. Ministerial-level talks will resume this weekend, and the Russian president seems to be gambling that his US counterpart will lose patience with the pace of the talks and push Zelenskyy to make concessions.

Trump did not give in to Putin’s demands for a complete cessation of military aid and intelligence support for Ukraine, but he did not disappoint either. On Wednesday, he presented a ‘new proposal’ for Zelenskyy to consider: the US acquiring Ukraine’s power plants, including its four nuclear facilities, calling it the ‘best protection for that infrastructure’. One of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, is under Russian control. Details of the ‘offer’ remain unclear, but it’s certainly something that will get Ukraine and Europe thinking.

Talks will need to begin at some point with both Ukraine and Russia at the table, with not only the US but also Europe sitting in. These talks must tackle critical questions of security guarantees for Ukraine and the fate of territory seized by Russia. Ukraine must work with its European allies and other stakeholders who can engage with Russia to formulate a plan that guarantees its sovereignty and future. Until then, lasting peace will remain nothing more than an ideal.