Market researcher Counterpoint Research estimates pan-India penetration of base 5G smartphones will jump to 43% by end-2025 from an estimated 3% in year 2024, amid falling device prices, rising adoption of the next-gen wireless broadband service and a likely pick-up in upgrades to 5G devices at the entry-level.
“The recent launch of sub-₹10,000 5G phones by the likes of Poco (C75) and Xiaomi (A4 5G) is set to intensify competition and potentially drive rival handset brands to also cut pricing of base 5G smartphone models down to similar levels. This is expected to sharply increase the pan-India penetration of entry-level 5G phones in 2025,” Counterpoint’s research director Tarun Pathak told ET.
He added that 2025 is also likely to see top handset makers going for high-volume clearance of this year’s 5G devices inventory at sizeable discounts in the 16-17% range. This, typically, could result in unsold 5G smartphones, currently priced at ₹10,000-₹12,000 being sold at sub-₹10,000 levels, and in turn, boosting market penetration.
Handset sector trackers also expect a pick-up in 5G device upgrades at the entry-level, amid rising adoption of the next-gen wireless broadband service in 2025, especially with Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel having concluded pan-India 5G rollouts and Vodafone Idea (Vi) readying to launch 5G in top cities next year. Jio and Airtel had 148 million and 105 million pure 5G users respectively in the quarter ended September, 2024.
The pick-up in device upgrades at the entry level is also slated to boost overall penetration of sub-₹10,000 smartphones (4G and 5G devices combined) to 22% by end-2025 from an estimated 18% in 2024.Market trackers, though, expect 4G phones, to continue dominating the entry-level smartphones segment, retaining around 57% market penetration in 2025.As per findings of a recent market survey by IIFL Securities, “for customers with a budget of ₹6,000-₹7,000, 4G phones are still the only option”. The brokerage, though, noted that 100% of new mobile users with budgets above ₹10,000 are buying 5G handsets. “Vivo leads in sales, followed by Oppo and Samsung,” IIFL said.
As per market research firm, IDC, shipments of 5G handsets in the mass segment ($100-$200) has almost doubled during the quarter, which coincided with the festive season. The segment now accounts for 50% of 5G smartphones sold in India.
