The UK Health Security Agency has published a list of the 24 pathogen families that could pose the greatest risk to public health on our shores. The list — which includes viruses that cause flu, Ebola and Zika as well as bacterial threats — aims to encourage targeted research into new diagnostic methods, vaccines and treatments that may be needed in a major outbreak.
The pathogens were not ranked and no single threat was identified as the most dangerous, but experts considered the pandemic potential of the viral pathogens, with three described as “high”. Those belonged to the families Coronaviridae (including Covid-19 and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome), Orthomyxoviridae (flu), Paramyxoviridae (Nipah virus, measles), and Peribunyaviridae (Oropouche fever).
The UK Health Security Agency produced the list after taking into account both global public health risks and those specific to the UK.
Chief scientific officer Dr Isabel Oliver said: “This tool is a vital guide for industry and academia, highlighting where scientific research can be targeted to boost UK preparedness against health threats.
“We are using the tool as part of our conversations with the scientific community, to help ensure that investment is focused to where it can have the biggest impact.
“We hope this will help to speed up vaccine and diagnostics development where it is most needed, to ensure we are fully prepared in our fight against potentially deadly pathogens.”
The risk of pandemics is rising due to climate change, which is driving animal migration and allowing disease-carrying pests to reach new locations.
Professor Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said the UK had previously been too focused on the risk of a flu pandemic, so “when Covid arrived, it took too long to adjust our response to a different threat, which was part of the reason we ended up in lockdown”.
And he described the UKHSA report as “a timely reminder that we should not put all our eggs in one basket”.
Prof Woolhouse added that the Paramyxoviridae family includes the measles virus, which is “the kind of pandemic that public health agencies around the world are most concerned about”.
He explained: “A novel measles-like virus would pose a threat far worse than Covid. Such a virus would have a much higher R number than the original variants of Covid – making it impossible to control by even the strictest lockdown.
“It would also be considerably more deadly, and (unlike Covid) it would be a threat to children.”
The report comes after leading pandemic expert Sir Peter Hordby, who is director of Oxford University’s Pandemic Sciences Institute, warned that “smarter” tools would be needed in future outbreaks.
He told the Express he did not believe lockdowns would be possible again in his lifetime due to people’s memories of their negative consequences.
Here is a list of the 24 pathogen families, with an overall pandemic potential score and examples of related diseases:
Viral threats:
- Adenoviridae – Medium, Adenovirus infection.
- Arenaviridae – Low, Lassa fever.
- Calciviridae – Medium, Norovirus infection.
- Coronaviridae – High, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome.
- Filoviridae – Low, Ebola, Sudan and Marburg disease.
- Flaviviridae – Low, Dengue, Zika, Hepatitis C.
- Hantaviridae – Low, Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.
- Nairoviridae – Low, Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic fever.
- Orthomyxoviridae – High, Flu.
- Paramyxoviridae – High, Nipah virus infection.
- Peribunyaviridae – Low, Oropouche fever.
- Phenuiviridae – Low, Rift Valley fever.
- Picornaviridae – High, Acute flaccid myelitis.
- Pneumoviridae – Medium, hMPV infection.
- Poxviridae – Medium, Mpox.
- Togaviridae – Low, Chikungunya.
Bacterial threats:
- Bacillaceae – Anthrax.
- Coxiellaceae – Q-fever.
- Enterobacteriaceae – Plague, Pneumonia, bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections.
- Francisellacae – Tularaemia.
- Moraxellaceae – Pneumonia, bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections.
- Neisseriaceae – Gonorrhoea.
- Staphylococcaceae – Cellulitis, endocarditis, pneumonia.
- Streptococcaceae – Scarlet fever, pneumonia, meningitis.
