The FBI says the man who drove a speeding truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street, New Orleans, early on New Year’s Day, killing 14 people, acted alone. Bureau officials also believe they know the man’s motive. Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, an American citizen from Texas who served eight years in the US army, some of it in Afghanistan, was “100% inspired” by Islamic State, said Christopher Raia of the FBI’s counter-terrorism division. An IS flag was affixed to his rented Ford pickup, Raia said.
What is less clear is why Jabbar came to so closely identify with the extremist Sunni Muslim terrorist organisation that seized Mosul in 2014. Under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s leadership, IS created a so-called caliphate in parts of Iraq and war-torn Syria. It became notorious for public executions, kidnappings and sexual enslavement. Baghdadi was killed in 2019. His followers were jailed and the caliphate smashed. But the IS brand was not.
Counter-terrorism experts divide IS attacks into three broad categories: directed, enabled and inspired. An infamous “directed” IS attack took place in Paris in 2015, when 130 people died. “IS-enabled” attacks involve limited collaboration between IS operatives and would-be attackers via the internet. “IS-inspired” attacks, such as in New Orleans, are typically the initiative of lone actors. Another example is the 2017 Westminster Bridge attack committed by a 52-year-old Briton, Khalid Masood, who drove a car into pedestrians, killing five people in total and injuring dozens.
Donald Trump’s claim in 2019 that IS had been destroyed was as absurd then as it is now. IS’s pernicious online influence reflects a continuing physical presence in Afghanistan, Somalia, the Sahel, and in Syria and Iraq, where up to 10,000 captured militants are held in Kurdish-policed camps. Though diminished and degraded, IS still poses a lethal threat. Last March’s direct attack on a Moscow concert hall, when nearly 150 people died, was the work of its Afghan branch.
Kurdish forces in north-eastern Syria have warned since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime of an increasing risk that IS fighters could break out of the camps. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – mainly Kurdish, US-backed militias – says assaults on Kurdish targets by Turkey and its proxies are undermining security. Iraqi government officials voice similar fears. Turkey should halt these irresponsible operations immediately. “Activity by Daesh [IS] has increased significantly, and the danger of a resurgence has doubled,” Gen Mazloum Abdi, an SDF commander, told the BBC recently. “They now have more capabilities and more opportunities.”
US cities are but one target for IS followers and lone actor emulators. Evidently, Britain and European countries provide others. Thwarted IS-inspired attacks in the US reportedly rose significantly last year amid an overall increase in IS-related violence worldwide. One proffered reason is anger over the mass killing by Israel of Palestinians in Gaza and the west’s ineffectual response. Another is a general failure, notably in Elon Musk’s America, to regulate social media and curb the spread of extreme Islamist propaganda. Internet chatter about IS operations against the west is said to have increased considerably in the run-up to the holiday season.
It is hard to defend against the random. Greater vigilance may provide some protection from lone actor attacks like New Orleans. Wiser political leadership would help, too. Trump’s reaction to the Bourbon Street horror was a disgrace. The US president-elect untruthfully blamed the attack on illegal migration, saying it justified his policy of mass deportations – and claimed the FBI was at fault for spending time prosecuting him rather than tracking down terrorists.
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Trump’s divisive, wilful, self-serving mendacity encourages violence and extremism, and ultimately boosts the terrorist cause.
