Meta and YouTube are set for a multibillion-dollar boost in revenues if ByteDance-owned TikTok is banned in the US on Sunday, say top advertising bosses, as rival tech platforms prepare for a potential land-grab of users and sales.
TikTok has warned that it will “go dark” for its 170mn US users from January 19 — the day before Donald Trump is inaugurated as president — under a new law that compels its Chinese parent ByteDance to divest the platform by that date or face a nationwide ban.
The potential ban has rivals including Meta, YouTube, Snap and Elon Musk’s X ready to pounce on TikTok’s Gen-Z users and the money that advertisers spend to influence them, as they look to grab market share in an increasingly competitive industry.
GroupM, the WPP-owned media buying group, said Meta and YouTube would be the “clear beneficiaries” in the US if a ban came into effect, based on the “similarity of their products” and their ability to handle incremental revenue of $15bn to $20bn.
Sir Martin Sorrell, founder of digital media business S4 Capital, said TikTok’s advertising revenues would be divided between Facebook, Instagram, Snap, X and YouTube, and amount to about $10bn — out of a total global digital advertising spend of about $700bn.
The viral short-form video app has become a key part of the marketing strategies for many brands over the past five years since its surge in popularity during the pandemic with Gen Z users, who are less likely to engage with traditional advertising such as television. This helped TikTok reach record annual revenues in the US of $16bn in 2023, said people familiar with the matter.
Under the terms of the law, Apple and Google app stores will no longer be able to offer TikTok to US users, meaning users would not be able to download the app. It also states US companies would be banned from “providing internet hosting services” to the video app.
TikTok is challenging the law in the hope it is struck down by the Supreme Court this week. At the same time, officials in Beijing have been discussing using Musk as a broker in a potential sale of the app’s US operations, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, president-elect Trump has promised to “save” the app when he takes the White House a day later, without providing details.
Any shake-up is likely to cause chaos for marketers, at least for the short-term, according to analysts. Some advertisers had prepared break clauses in their contracts with TikTok as early as last year in order to escape any financial commitments in the event of a ban.
Brian Wieser, chief executive at advertising consultancy Madison and Wall, said: “Nobody wants to change a process or workflow until you absolutely have to — but when it all happens at the same time and everybody is going to have to find new places for spend, it turns into chaos.”
“It’s going to cause prices to spike due to lack of certainty and whether or not you’re going to have your campaign filled,” he added.
Rival tech platforms have been preparing for the opportunity to seize TikTok’s younger audience and top creators as well as its advertising dollars by introducing new features that bring them closer to the format of the video app.
For companies such as Meta, which is doubling down on its push into artificial intelligence, more users or engagement would provide additional sought-after data to train its AI models.
Snap said it had been planning for this possibility for a year across a variety of teams. In October, it launched a redesign that shifted the app closer to a TikTok-like focus on short-form video. In December, Meta launched Trial Reels, allowing users to share their Reels videos primarily with people who do not follow them, close to TikTok’s format.
Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane last week said Meta had indicated in one-on-one conversations that it was spending on capital expenditure to prepare its infrastructure to handle a potential influx of traffic from any TikTok ban.
Stefan Slowinski, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said this was likely to include ensuring the company has “data centres and semiconductor capacity”.
Meta did not respond to a request for comment.
Some marketers said they had interpreted moves by Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg last week to scrap fact-checking and loosen moderation policies as an attempt to divert Trump away from rescuing TikTok.
Intelligence group eMarketer estimates that 22.4 per cent of TikTok’s US ad revenues would go to Meta’s Instagram and 17.1 per cent to Facebook, while Google’s YouTube would take 10.7 per cent of the split.
YouTube could have as much as $750mn added to its revenue for every 10 per cent of TikTok’s audience time it can capture for its “shorts” feature, according to estimates by analysts at Morgan Stanley.
YouTube declined to comment.
Among the other platforms, analysts say Snap has the greatest upside opportunity proportionally, given its smaller size and userbase that shares a similar demographic to TikTok.
Chris Best, chief executive of newsletter platform Substack, said there would be a “massive shift” if the app were banned that would benefit his company. Substack is seeking to take advantage with a $25,000 “TikTok Liberation Prize” for the best original video that inspires TikTokers to join Substack, as well as newly improved video posting services.
“We see this as a massive opportunity,” said Best, who said irrespective of the decision to ban or not “a lot of people are now considering which platform to use”.
One unexpected beneficiary so far has been Chinese social media start-up Xiaohongshu, also known as RedNote. The app shot to the top of the iPhone’s US download charts this week as TikTok users seeking alternatives fled there in protest at the US government’s law. Most of its content is in Mandarin, and the app does not have a translation feature to enable new US users to understand posts.
Some within the advertising industry have questioned whether rivals would be able to retain TikTok’s business and engage its Gen-Z userbase.
“Meta and YouTube face a stress test they might not be ready for. Reels lacks the sophistication of TikTok’s recommendation engine which is basically algorithmic rocket fuel, while YouTube Shorts hasn’t quite cracked creator monetisation,” said James Kirkham, founder of digital agency Iconic, which advises brands including Uber and EA Sports.
He added: “Building infrastructure is one thing, but replicating TikTok’s cultural magnetism is another entirely.”
Additional reporting by Stephen Morris in San Francisco. Data visualisation by Clara Murray
