Mike Amesbury says he is standing down as MP, triggering key Labour/Reform UK byelection contest
Mike Amesbury is standing down as an MP following his conviction for assault, the BBC is reporting.
This means there will definitely be a election in his constituency, Runcorn and Helsby.
This will be a challenge for Labour, which won the seat at the least election with a majority of 14,696. Reform UK came second on 18% of the vote, compared to Labour’s 53%. Nigel Farage’s party is seen as having a good chance of winning but, given that he regularly claims he is going to win the next general election (despite only winning five seats in 2024), failing to win would be a huge setback.
But the contest will also be perilous for Kemi Badenoch. The Tories were third in the constituency at the general election, with 16% of the vote, and a bad result would revive speculation about Badenoch facing a leadership challenge.
Key events
Early evening summary
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Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has told MPs that potentially “thousands” of neighbourhood policing officers and police community support officers (PCSOs) were miscounted by the last government, meaning cuts to officer numbers were “even worse” than anticipated. Opening the second reading debate on the crime and policing bill, she said:
I have to tell the house that the cuts to neighbourhood policing over the last decade were even worse than we had thought.
The previous Conservative government was so indifferent to neighbourhood policing that they did not even keep a proper count of who was doing that work. They treated, too often, the neighbourhood police officers just the same as 999 response officers or local detective teams, and the Home Office guidance actually allowed forces to report some of their response officers as neighbourhood police instead, and they didn’t have proper checks in place.
As a result, I can tell the house that hundreds and even thousands of officers and PCSOs were miscounted under the last government and the Home Office and National Police Chiefs’ Council will, later this month, have to publish revised force-by-force figures so that communities properly can see what is happening in their area.
Rob Ford, a politics professor, has posted some thoughts on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection on Bluesky.
By-election time! First of the new Parliament, and an interesting one too…Labour have a 35 point majority in Amesbury’s seat of Runcorn & Helsby (formerly Weaver Vale), which looks big, but these are volatile times, and ReformUK are in 2nd place
So, first of all, could Lab lose? The seat would fall on a 17.5 point swing away from the government…sounds a lot, but Starmer achieved 6 swings of 20 points plus in the previous Parliament (5 from Con, 1 from SNP), Starmer & Lab are now about as unpopular as their Tory predecessors were then…
Second, could Reform win? They finished only 2 points ahead of Conservatives last July, and the predecessor seat of Weaver Vale returned Tory MPs in 2010 and 2015. Reform will need to squeeze the Con vote as well as win over Labour voters – may not be easy & they have their own internal troubles
Third, what would the result mean? In one sense, not much. By-elections are often outliers. But perceptions are everything…The current Starmer team spent years obsessing over by-election campaigns & the rise of Reform is the big story right now.
A Lab defeat to Reform will be a big blow to morale and will definitely intensify internal arguments over how to respond to Farage, particularly as it will come either soon before or soon after local and Mayoral contests which will also feature Reform heavily.
A Reform by-election win on such a big swing would be a huge deal for Farage, demonstrating his claim to be “coming for Labour” is credible, and likely also showing that Reform can squeeze third placed Con voters where they are the best placed local opponent to Lab…
…and partly for that reason a Reform win would be an even bigger nightmare for Badenoch and Cons that Starmer & Lab. Not only would it underline Badenoch’s failure to rebuilt support or see off Farage, it would make the possibility of Reform displacing Cons as main party of the right more credible
Every by-election provides a big moment of electoral drama and a key test for the parties. This one will perhaps be a bigger moment than most, shaping perceptions of three different parties’ prospects – offering relief or anxiety for each going into the summer & the autumn conference season beyond.
Nominations to be Labour’s candidate in Runcorn and Helsby have already closed, according to the broadcaster Michael Crick, who has a useful Twitter sideline monitoring candidate selections.
Election Maps UK, an elections/polling website, says Labour should be able to win Runcon and Helsby, on the basis of current national polling, according to its model.
🚨 Parliamentary By-Election Klaxon!
Mike Amesbury (Runcorn & Helsby) has announced he will stand down after his conviction for assaulting a constituent.
National polls indicate Labour would hold this seat by ~13% over Reform, though by-election dynamics are very different! pic.twitter.com/JCeP5m0IT5
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) March 10, 2025
In his interview with the BBC Mike Amesbury said that, if he had been given a lighter sentence for assault, he would have tried to stay on as an MP.
But he was given a custodial sentence, which was suspended following an appeal, and this meant the recall petition process would have been triggered if he had not decided to quit. He told the BBC:
I’m going to step aside at the earliest opportunity. I’ve got processes I must go through – there’s a statutory process in terms of redundancies.
Amesbury said he would regret assaulting Paul Fellows for the rest of his life. But he said he was on edge before the incident happened because he had received death threats. He went on:
So, when someone approached me at ten past two in the morning it was quite natural to be on edge and anxious – and I got it wrong …
I just saw red – a moment of madness which I will regret for the rest of my life.
Sentencing Council chair suggests Mahmood’s threat to curb its powers would undermine independence of judiciary
The Sentencing Council has said that the claims that its new guidelines for judges will result in minority ethnic offenders getting more lenient sentences than white offenders are “completely wrong”.
Lord Justice William Davis, chair of the council, hit back in an open letter to Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, in which he also suggested that it was a mistake for her to threaten its independence.
Davis was responding to a letter Mahmood sent to the council last week, after it issued new guidelines saying judges should normally get pre-sentence reports for certain categories of offender, including people from an ethnic, cultural or faith minority. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, claimed this would make the legal system biased againt white people.
In a reference to Jenrick, Davis said:
I have seen it suggested that the guideline instructs sentencers to impose a more lenient sentence on those from ethnic minorities than white offenders. Plainly that suggestion is completely wrong.
Davis said the council produced the new guidelines following a consultation process that started in 2022. He said the last government did not object to what was proposed, and officials from Mahmood’s department did not raise any objections when they were briefed on what was being planned two days before the new guidelines were published.
Defending the news guidelines, Davis said:
The purpose of the list [of types of offender where a pre-sentence report will normally be needed] is to remind sentencers of the kinds of cases in which it is likely that they will require more information about the offence and the offender to reach an appropriate opinion of the sentence. The guideline does not mandate a pre-sentence report in those cases. Rather, a report will normally be considered necessary. It does not exclude a pre-sentence report in relation to an offender who does not fall within any of the wide range of groups reflected in the list …
In relation to offenders from ethnic minorities, there is good evidence (both from the council’s own research and other independent research) that in relation to some types of offence there is a disparity in sentence outcomes as between white offenders and offenders from an ethnic minority. Offenders from some ethnic minority backgrounds are more likely to receive an immediate custodial sentence than white offenders. In some offence specific guidelines this fact is highlighted. Why this disparity exists remains unclear. The Council’s view is that providing a sentencer with as much information as possible about the offender is one means by which such disparity might be addressed.
In her letter to the council, Mahmood said people from a minority ethnic background should not get “differential treatment” from the criminal justice system. She said she would review whether the council should have the power to make such important decisison, and whether ministers or MPs should have more say.
But Davis accused her of threatening the independence of the judiciary. He said:
All judges and magistrates are required to apply any relevant guideline unless the interests of justice require otherwise. In practice, the guidelines form the backbone of every sentencing decision made throughout England and Wales. There is general acceptance of the guidelines by the judiciary because they emanate from an independent body on which judicial members are in the majority. The council preserves the critical constitutional position of the independent judiciary in relation to sentencing.
In criminal proceedings where the offender is the subject of prosecution by the state, the state should not determine the sentence imposed on an individual offender. If sentencing guidelines of whatever kind were to be dictated in any way by ministers of the Crown, this principle would be breached.
Mike Amesbury says he is standing down as MP, triggering key Labour/Reform UK byelection contest
Mike Amesbury is standing down as an MP following his conviction for assault, the BBC is reporting.
This means there will definitely be a election in his constituency, Runcorn and Helsby.
This will be a challenge for Labour, which won the seat at the least election with a majority of 14,696. Reform UK came second on 18% of the vote, compared to Labour’s 53%. Nigel Farage’s party is seen as having a good chance of winning but, given that he regularly claims he is going to win the next general election (despite only winning five seats in 2024), failing to win would be a huge setback.
But the contest will also be perilous for Kemi Badenoch. The Tories were third in the constituency at the general election, with 16% of the vote, and a bad result would revive speculation about Badenoch facing a leadership challenge.
Almost a third of Britons now see US as unfriendly or threat to UK, poll suggests
Almost a third of Britons (30%) now see the US as either a hostile threat (11%) or unfriendly (19%) to the UK, according to polling by YouGov. When Joe Biden was president, only about one person in 10 had a negative view of the US.
53% of Britons see the US as an ally or friendly rival to the UK and other European countries, down from 67% in December and the lowest level since YouGov began asking the question
Friend and ally: 33% (-9 from 28-30 Dec)
Friendly rival: 20% (-5)
Unfriendly: 19% (+10)
Hostile… pic.twitter.com/zT5hFidfJy— YouGov (@YouGov) March 10, 2025
Starmer tells Trump in latest call he hopes Saudi talks will lead to US aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine resuming
Keir Starmer has had a call today with President Trump, No 10 said.
According to the readout, Starmer told the president he hoped the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia would lead to America resuming aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
A spokesperson for No 10 said:
The prime minister spoke to President Trump ahead of the US Ukraine dialogue in Saudi Arabia.
The prime minister said that UK officials had been speaking to Ukraine officials over the weekend and they remain committed to a lasting peace.
The prime minister said he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted.
The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the prime minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward. Both leaders agreed to stay in touch.
Gove dismisses evidence at Covid inquiry implying he told officials to ‘circumvent’ regulators to help James Dyson
At the Covid inquiry Michael Gove, the former Cabinet Office minister, has dismissed evidence suggesting he ordered officials to ensure that ventilators designed by James Dyson’s company for use during the Covid pandemic were approved.
Confronted with an official minute of a meeting suggesting that, on Wednesday 25 March 2020, he told civil servants that he wanted the Dyson model to be approved by the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority) by the Friday (two days later), Gove said that it would have been “absurd” for him to seek to overrule a regulatory body.
He also claimed that the minute was phrased in “shorthand” and that what it was meant to say was that he wanted to see the Dyson ventilator approved, provided it passed the tests.
Gove was responding to questions from Jamie Sharma, counsel for the inquiry, who produced this minute. It says that CDL (Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – Gove) told MHRA and Gareth Rhys Williams, a Cabinet Office official, to ensure that “by the end of Friday, the Dyson product has tested and approved by MHRA”.
Sharma also showed the inquiry a letter from Graeme Tunbridge, director of devices at the MHRA, saying that Gove was “keen to press forward with Dyson’s proposal to a timescale that is totally unrealistic, based in part on promises made by Dyson that are already not being fulfilled”. Tunbridge added:
In addition, however, CDL did not appreciate the level of risk involved in the manufacture and use of ventilators and wanted to circumvent the expedited regulatory process that had been put in place.
Sharma also showed the inquiry an email from Rhys Williams describing Gove’s attitude in this matter as “unreasonable”.
Gove said the minute of the meeting where he said he wanted to see the Dyson product approved was not an exact record. He said:
This is private office of shorthand for ‘we would hope that it had been tested, and if tested satisfactory, approved by the MHRA to that timescale’. I was anxious to ensure at all points that, if we could, that we had products that could save lives operating at the front line.
But it’s absurd to imagine that I, or any other minister, could instruct the MHRA, an independent regulatory agency, to approve a product. If I had told the MHRA to approve a product, they would have told me where to get off.
Asked about the claim from Tunbridge that Gove wanted to see the regulatory process circumvented, Gove said he just wanted to ensure the proper process was carried out rapidly.
Gove also said that he was particularly keen to see the Dyson product approved because, unlike other people offering to make ventilators for use by the NHS, Dyson had the ability to scale up manufacture very quickly.
Heather Hallett, the chair, asked Gove if it was fair to summarise this as Gove putting officials under “a great deal of pressure” because he thought the Dyson scheme was viable when it wasn’t. Gove accepted that summary. He said he was not qualified to say if the Dyson model was viable. But, he went on:
What I do have experience of is pushing bureaucracies, and sometimes I can be unreasonable and rebarbative in tone, and I apologise for that.
Sharma then showed the inquiry an extract from the witness statement from Sir John Manzoni, permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office at the time. Manzoni said he was concerned that “indirect pressure was being placed on the MHRA to approve the supplier’s design at the stage of selecting suppliers to progess to the ventilator challenge”. Manzoni had to intervene “to protect the integrity of the process”, he said.
Gove said there was no need for Manzoni to protect the integrity of the process because he (Gove) was doing that anyway.
Asked if he had any regrets over what he did, Gove said he did not.
He said that Dyson, or his company, spent £20m on trying to develop a ventilator. He did it because he wanted to help the NHS, Gove said. And Gove claimed Dyson was attracting negative publicity “because of his support for Brexit”.
16 leading charities says disability benefit cuts would have ‘devasating’ impact, pushing more people into poverty
Sixteen leading disability and welfare charities have written an open letter to Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, expressing alarm at reports that the government is planning to cut PIP (personal independent payments – a disability benefit) by up to £5bn. (See 12.51pm.) They say the impact of the proposed cuts could be “devastating”, pushing up to 700,000 disabled households into poverty.
In the letter, Mark Hodgkinson, chief executive of Scope, and the other charities leaders say:
Disability benefits such as Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and the limited capability for work amount, can be a lifeline for disabled households and can enable people who receive PIP to work. Making cuts to disability benefits would have a catastrophic impact on disabled people up and down the country. Scope’s analysis of government figures shows that without PIP, a further 700,000 more disabled households could be pushed into poverty. Life costs more for disabled people. Huge numbers already live in poverty as a result of these extra costs. The impact of any cuts to disability benefits would be devastating.
We agree with the government’s ambition to support more disabled people into work. However, making cuts to disability benefits will not achieve this goal or fix the system. In fact, there is little evidence to suggest cutting benefits increases employment outcomes. We know the benefits system is broken and needs reform. That there are disabled people out of work who want to work given the right support. And for some disabled people work isn’t appropriate. Changes to welfare must start here. Not with cuts.
The other organisations that have signed the letter are: Inclusion Barnet; National Autistic Society; Thomas Pocklington Trust; Citizens Advice; Sense; Mencap; Disability Rights UK; RNIB; MS Society; Joseph Rowntree Foundation; Mind; Turn2Us; Z2K; Trussell; and Parkinsons UK.
Foreign states including repressive regimes pay peers over £3m in two years
Members of the House of Lords have been paid more than £3m in the last two years by foreign governments including repressive Middle Eastern regimes, Rob Evans reports, in the latest report from the Guardian’s investigation into the business interests of peers.
With Rob Davies, Rob is also reporting that the former chancellor Philip Hammond has made millions from 30 directorships and consultancy jobs,
Hamish Falconer, the Foreign Office minister, will make a Commons statement on Syria at 3.30pm, the Commons officials have announced.
No 10 ‘deeply concerned’ about Israel cutting electricity supply to Gaza
Downing Street has urged Israel to restore Gaza’s electricity supply, warning that failing to do so risked breaching international law.
Israel announced it had cut off Gaza’s electricity supply on Sunday evening, a week after it suspended delivery of humanitarian supplies to the territory.
At the lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson said No 10 was “deeply concerned” by these reports. He said:
Our position is humanitarian aid should never be contingent on a ceasefire or used as a political tool.
Asked whether the move was against international law, he said this was “a matter for an international court” but added:
A halt on goods and supplies entering Gaza, including basic needs such as electricity, risks breaching Israel’s obligations under international humanitarian law.
David Willetts appointed chair of new Regulatory Innovation Office
David Willetts, the Tory former minister for universities and science, has been appointed as the first chair of the Regulatory Innovation Office (RIO), the government has announced. It says the RIO was set up “to cut red tape which unnecessarily impedes on new technologies coming to market and stunts growth, instead pivoting to a streamlined and pro-innovation environment which allows people across the UK to reap the real, positive impact of new tech safely and sooner”.
To mark his appointment, Willetts went to Guy’s hospital in London with Patrick Vallance, the science minister, to see how drones are transforming healthcare. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology says:
Drones are already cutting blood delivery times from 30 minutes to just 2 minutes, speeding up testing turnaround times to improve NHS productivity. British start-up Apian, founded by NHS doctors, works with global drone company Wing to fly blood samples from Guy’s to Synnovis’ lab at St Thomas’ Hospital for urgent testing. This rapid turnaround service supports some of their most vulnerable patients, ensuring they have the best possible care.
Starmer to host second, virtual ‘coalition of willing’ meeting for countries willing to protect Ukraine
Keir Starmer is to host another summit of countries willing to contribute to Ukraine’s defence in the event of a peace deal, No 10 has said.
The PM’s spokesperson said that the next “coalition of the willing” meeting would take place virtually, probably on Saturday. It will build on what was discussed at the in-person meeting Starmer chaired at Lancaster House eight days ago.
Around 20 countries are taking part, No 10 said, mostly from Europe and the Commonwealth.
And tomorrow Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, will also attend a meeting in Paris with fellow military leaders about the proposal.
Starmer and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, have been leading efforts to ensure that, in the event of Ukraine and Russia agreeing a ceasefire, a Europe-led force could be dispatched to Ukraine to help protect it from further Russian aggression. But Starmer says such a force would also need US backup support.
Russia expels British diplomat, and spouse of another, over what No 10 says are ‘baseless’ spying claims
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has expelled one British diplomat and the spouse of another, accusing them of spying, PA Media reports. PA says:
The pair were accused of engaging in intelligence activity under cover of the embassy in Moscow.
They have been ordered to leave the country within two weeks, the Russian news agency Tass said, citing the country’s FSB security agency.
“The Federal Security Service’s counter-intelligence operations exposed the unreported intelligence presence of the United Kingdom under the cover of the country’s embassy in Moscow,” an FSB statement cited by Tass reads.
It is the latest in a series of tit-for-tat expulsions involving the UK’s embassy in Moscow and the Russian mission in London.
Downing Street said the latest expulsions were “what we have come to expect from President Putin and his regime” and “the allegations are no doubt baseless”.
The PM’s spokesman said: “It won’t distract us from our focus on supporting Ukraine and putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position over the days and weeks ahead.”